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weather10h ago
Super El Nino: If you think it’s hot now, time to brace for what is coming next
Independent.co.uk and 2 more
- A UN World Meteorological Organization report projects a 75% chance the next five years will average above 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, signaling a continuing push toward global heat records.
- The reference reinforces that El Niño conditions this decade are likely to raise temperatures and shift weather patterns across multiple regions.
- Arctic warming is projected to outpace the global average by a wide margin, intensifying heat extremes in polar regions through 2030.
- Global heat risk increases as coal, oil and gas combustion drives more extreme weather, including heat waves, floods and droughts.
- The probability of crossing the 1.5°C threshold within the next five years remains very high, with at least one year likely to exceed it.
- The reference notes significantly warmer Arctic winters, with five winters projected to average well above recent norms.
- Amazon basin is forecast to become hotter and drier, elevating wildfire risk and challenging regional climate regulation by forests.
- Global temperature averages are expected to stay well above pre-industrial levels, threatening ecosystems such as coral and glaciers.
- UN climate officials warn current efforts to curb warming are not sufficient to offset rising temperatures and risks.
- The new reference and article align on heightened wildfire risk in the Amazon and Arctic regions amid broader warming trends.
- Historical Super El Niños are rare but have caused substantial global disruption when they occur, underscoring the potential for dramatic climate swings.
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