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politics1d ago
How the midterms are shaping up: From the Politics Desk
- Democrats hold a modest edge in the generic congressional ballot, though smaller than 2018 levels.
- Republicans are constrained by ongoing redistricting and partisan sorting that limit large losses.
- The 2022 midterm baseline showed a different dynamic when Biden’s approval was low but did not produce a wave for the opposition.
- Independent voters shifted in 2022, narrowing the usual midterm advantage for the president’s party.
- The battlefield remains smaller and districts are redrawn, insulating incumbents from large losses.
- Trump’s standing remains a factor in forecasting House outcomes.
- Developing: A Virginia court ruling could block state Democrats’ redistricting plan.
- Minnesota and border policy updates show ongoing federal-state coordination on immigration issues.
- A growing number of Republican senators are calling for investigations related to immigration and law enforcement actions.
- The newsletter underscores ongoing political probes affecting multiple figures ahead of the next election.
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