8legs: U.s. federal reserve

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Fed Governor Waller says Iran war and labor market risks are keeping central bank on hold

Waller says inflation risks vs. labor market risks may keep the policy rate on hold for a longer period.
The speech suggests a prolonged hold as markets eye an uncertain economic outlook.
Waller says hiring conditions show little growth but the labor market remains stable overall.
Waller noted that the break-even hiring rate may be near zero, signaling fragile hiring momentum.
Waller previously supported rate cuts but voted to hold the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%.
Waller cautioned labor-market fragility could heighten sensitivity to shocks and job losses.
Waller warned that Iran-related disruptions and tariffs could sustain price pressures.
Waller noted the Fed may need to hold until the economic direction becomes clearer.
The remarks align with a cautious stance as markets forecast a hold this year.
Waller reiterated he sees potential for inflation to stay elevated longer due to shocks.

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