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world19h ago
Why Iran's response to a US attack could be different this time
- A carrier strike group led by the USS Abraham Lincoln has arrived near Iranian waters, signaling heightened tensions.
- Analysts say the arrival sharpens concerns of a direct U.S.–Iran confrontation closer than in recent years.
- Iran faces a period of intense domestic crackdown and an internet blackout complicating casualty reporting.
- Tehran frames protests as a continuation of last summer's conflict with Israel to justify a security-first response.
- Analysts warn a limited strike could backfire by enabling internal repression if used to claim success.
- A broader campaign could risk destabilizing Iran and triggering long-term regional spillovers.
- Both sides acknowledge the broader strategic context, including regional deterrence and misperception risks.
- Iranian officials warn any attack would be treated as an act of war, signaling the risk of rapid regional escalation.
- The region remains at risk as Gulf states hosting US forces and Israel could face spillover effects.
- The evolving dynamics show both sides seeking a balance between deterrence and restraint amid domestic turmoil.
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