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world1d ago
Declining fertility in Europe: Why Turkey is leading the drop
- Turkey's fertility rate dropped from 2.11 in 2013 to 1.51 in 2023, the largest decline among 34 European countries.
- Experts say the decline reflects a worsening financial crisis, inflation, and housing costs driving people to delay or rethink childbearing.
- Postponement alone cannot explain the fall; fewer families are having a third child due to costs and changing preferences.
- Rising costs of education and housing, plus limited access to affordable childcare, are seen as constraints on larger families.
- The mean age at first birth rose from 25.5 in 2014 to 27.3 in 2024, contributing to delayed family formation.
- Women in Türkiye have surpassed men in university attainment, reshaping the marriage market and affecting fertility.
- Experts link the trend to urbanisation, education, and rising female employment, while rejecting a single-cause explanation.
- Policy measures tied to family incentives may boost births temporarily but are unlikely to be sustainable.
- Divorce rates have risen, further shortening the window for childbearing.
- By 2023, Turkey’s TFR remained above the EU average of 1.38, underscoring nuanced demographic shifts.
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