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world1d ago
A gas shock, not an oil shock, from the Iran war looks more threatening | Nils Pratley
- A gas shock, not an oil shock, could threaten Europe and Asia if LNG supply from Qatar halts due to Iranian strikes.
- Qatari LNG cannot be diverted via pipeline and must pass through Hormuz, where shipping has largely stopped.
- Analysts warn a prolonged Hormuz disruption could trigger large natural gas demand responses in Europe.
- Europe and Asia are major LNG buyers, with Europe sourcing about a quarter of its gas as LNG in 2025.
- UK LNG reliance is lower now, with US LNG comprising a large share since 2023.
- The market for LNG is global, with cargoes sometimes diverted mid-transit to seek better prices.
- Bottom line: the duration of Qatar production shutdown and Hormuz closure will determine impact.
- UK gas prices surged from 75p to 114p per therm over a single period amid the crisis.
- Forecasts warn energy bills could spike again if LNG supply tightens.
- The piece contrasts gas flexibility to oils’ limited diversification in a war scenario.
- The Guardian cites government data indicating a changing LNG supply mix in the coming years.
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