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politics5h ago
Opinion | Why Trump’s Cuba aspirations may not play out the way he wants
- The Trump administration increases pressure on Cuba with new financial and legal measures as talks proceed.
- U.S. actions include tariffs on fuel shipments to Cuba and a Justice Department effort to indict Cuban officials.
- Analysts compare Cuba strategy to past U.S. moves on Venezuela, though expect a tougher outcome due to Havana’s cohesion.
- Cuba’s leadership is described as more unified and durable than Maduro’s regime, complicating U.S. attempts to install a pliable successor.
- The Cuban regime could use irregular migration as a lever if under pressure, similar to past waves.
- Past Cuban crises, like the Mariel and Balsero waves, shaped U.S. negotiations with Havana.
- The article emphasizes that Cuban officials and security services can blunt dissent through harsh measures.
- Havana’s leverage includes the potential to complicate U.S. plans while avoiding collapse of its own regime.
- The piece frames the Cuba talks as a high-stakes geopolitical negotiation between Washington and Havana.
- Overall, the article argues past U.S. approaches did not topple Cuba and warns against overreliance on pressure alone.
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