#1
#1 out of 2
world1d ago
Polymarket adds betting contracts on next US target after Venezuela – like Colombia or Cuba
- Polymarket added new contracts betting on the US targeting Cuba or Colombia in 2026 after the Venezuela operation.
- The market priced a 10% chance of a US invasion of Cuba in 2026.
- Polymarket reportedly saw over $620,000 won by traders on a Maduro-related bet before the US raid.
- Regulators have debated how to regulate bets tied to wars and conflict in prediction markets.
- Polymarket faced past scrutiny from regulators and disputes over payouts after Venezuela-related bets.
- Polymarket operates with a data partnership with Dow Jones and has connectivity to broader media ecosystems.
- Further implications include ethics concerns about incentives for insiders in geopolitics bets.
- Polymarket’s emergence followed traders’ gains after predicting key political events in 2024.
- The article notes growing interest in geopolitics-focused contracts as a niche within prediction markets.
- The report references a 2024 FBI investigation involving Polymarket’s founder and regulatory scrutiny.
Vote 0
