8legs: Pierre-olivier gourinchas

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#1 out of 2

IMF says AI has not yet shown macro productivity gains in current data, despite strong progress.
IMF sees AI as a significant upside risk for future growth, with potential 0.1–0.4 percentage point yearly gains.
Transition could disrupt labour markets, with early signs of softening in hiring for entry-level roles.
IMF warns against overinvestment and misallocation of capital in the AI sector.
A broader financial correction could occur if valuations in AI rise too fast and funding dries up.
IMF notes the risk to banks if leveraged AI investments fail to pay off.
Policy focus should include re-skilling the workforce as AI evolves.
Regulators are watching financial markets for signs of excess in AI funding.
IMF emphasizes both AI’s potential and the disruptions the transition may bring.
The long-term impact will hinge on how economies manage opportunities and disruptions.

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#2 out of 2

IMF warns Jim Chalmers against broad-based cost-of-living handouts in the upcoming budget.
IMF economist Gourinchas cautioned against energy subsidies as costly and poorly designed.
IMF downgraded Australia’s near-term growth to about 2% in 2026 and warned of inflation.
Inflation in Australia is expected to reach about 4% in 2026.
Chalmers said Australia is better placed than many, but energy shocks still matter.
IMF Deputy Hauser noted short-term inflation expectations are rising but long-term expectations stay stable.
Chalmers plans to focus the budget on fuel security, supply chains, resilience, and reform.
IMF warned that prolonged war could push the global economy toward recession.
IMF highlighted the risk of inflation from energy supply disruptions.
Chalmers traveled to Washington for IMF-World Bank meetings amid global uncertainties.
IMF suggested energy price spikes be looked through if inflation expectations stay anchored.

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