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business1d ago
NAR chief economist offers ‘best guess’ about Fed rate cuts
- Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, says a single 50-basis-point rate cut may occur this summer.
- Oil price dynamics could influence the timing of rate cuts, Yun says.
- Mortgage rates may stay near 7% if energy costs stay elevated, Yun warns.
- NAR revised its 2026 home-sales forecast downward, trimming the year-over-year gain.
- The economy is not in a recession, Yun says, but confidence remains weak.
- Fed Chair Powell's term ending soon could affect rate decisions, Yun notes.
- Warsh's hawkish stance in past years shapes expectations for cuts, Yun adds.
- The upcoming energy market trajectory remains a key variable for policy and housing.
- Yun cites resilience in some employment data despite limited job gains.
- The Latest: Powell's successor could influence mid-year rate decisions.
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