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Why hasn't the Iranian regime collapsed?
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politics20h ago

Why hasn't the Iranian regime collapsed?

  • The Iranian regime has remained intact nine days into the war, with protests not yet materializing as opponents await U.S. moves.
  • Analysts attribute regime resilience to a hybrid governance model post-1979 revolution that outlasts leadership shocks.
  • The Supreme Leader oversees intelligence, the army, and other sensitive roles, ensuring centralized yet distributed authority.
  • The Assembly of Experts can theoretically remove the Supreme Leader but exercises limited practical interference.
  • The Guardian Council wields power over legislation and candidate eligibility, shaping political outcomes.
  • The judiciary, headed by the Supreme Leader's appointee, interprets conservative law and extends influence over society.
  • The Expediency Council advises the Supreme Leader and can resolve disputes between parliament and the Guardian Council.
  • Iran's military branches, Artesh and IRGC, are key to national security and regime preservation.
  • The IRGC controls the Basij and Quds Force, extending influence across regional proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
  • Experts say the IRGC's wealth and hardline stance will influence the selection of the next Supreme Leader.
  • If the Supreme Leader dies, a temporary joint transfer of duties to the Chief Justice, President, and a Guardian Council member is expected until succession is determined.
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