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business7h ago
Russia’s economy indicators for 2025 and 2026
- Russia faces a marked deceleration in 2025 with only gradual 2026 recovery, according to multiple forecasters.
- Inflation is expected to stay high in 2025 before easing in 2026, with IMF projecting around 9% in 2025.
- Labor shortages persist due to mobilization, emigration, and demographic decline across key sectors.
- Sanctions and capital market isolation limit foreign investment and long-term financing.
- Energy rents decline and price caps squeeze the fiscal and current-account buffers.
- Import substitution gains appear exhausted without Western capital goods and software.
- Investment is forecast to fall in 2026, reversing earlier growth expectations.
- Defence and security sectors continue to absorb most investment amid a civilian slowdown.
- Public debt and currency risks rise as the economy leans toward a high-inflation, high-yield path.
- Forecasts vary, with World Bank projecting 1.4% growth in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026 according to the report.
- The report notes a transition from mobilization-driven expansion to a low-growth, high-inflation regime.
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