8legs: Fulcrum capital

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Hedge funds think they can make a killing on Trump tariff refunds

Hedge funds and institutions are buying tariff refund claims, betting on government payouts after the Supreme Court ruling.
Prices for refunds have risen from 20-40 cents to as high as 70 cents on the dollar for top claims.
The market sees tax refunds as working capital, with buyers providing upfront liquidity for receivables.
The refunds market is a response to liquidity concerns as importers await government reimbursements.
CBP rolled out an electronic refund portal, with phased access starting mid-April for newer, simpler claims.
Deal sizes vary, with most transactions under $100 million and some exceeding that amount.
The market carries political risk, with experts noting uncertainty about future refunds under Trump administration policy.
Banks and brokers, including Oppenheimer and Stifel, are central to brokering refund deals.
The refunds market is linked to broader cost pressures from Middle East conflicts and inflation.
Some importers are using tariff refunds as collateral on loans to bolster liquidity.

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