8legs: Federal reserve system

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#1 out of 2

Oil market volatility linked to Middle East conflict clouds near-term U.S. inflation and growth outlook.
Fed inflation path remains above target in the short term, with energy costs driving higher prices.
Labor market shows cooling momentum with slower wage growth across skill levels.
GDP growth projected as moderate, but the conflict adds downside risks to activity.
Inflation expected to hover near 3% by end-2026 before easing toward 2% by 2027.
Markets shift from anticipated two 2026 cuts to a hold amid higher inflation concerns.
Energy disruptions may spill over into broader goods and services if they persist.
Inflation drivers are increasingly acyclical, with energy costs keeping overall inflation elevated.
Report is authored by Adam Shapiro from the San Francisco Fed with forecasting inputs.

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#2 out of 2

The Philly Fed Manufacturing Survey has tracked U.S. manufacturing since 1968, offering early signals on the economy.
Economists use the index as a regional leading indicator of broader economic trends.
The survey asks manufacturers about activity, new orders, prices, and the workweek to gauge changes.
The Philadelphia Fed introduced interactive dashboards and FAQs for the Manufacturing and Nonmanufacturing surveys.
The survey has tracked eight recessions, illustrating its value in understanding downturns and recoveries.
In 2025, the Philly Fed added Price and Inflation Expectations data to its suite.
Price changes reported in the Price and Inflation Expectations Survey have shown a relationship with U.S. inflation so far.
The survey serves as an early signal for both regional conditions and national economic trajectories.
Economists watch the index closely because manufacturing trends can predict broader changes.

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