8legs: Federal reserve

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#1 out of 4

Trump has repeatedly pressed policymakers to lower interest rates, but the Fed is unlikely to cut in March.
Historically, S&P 500 returns surrounding rate cuts hover around 10–11% in the following year.
The article notes a 50/50 chance of at least an 11% return if rates are cut in March, given current conditions.
Inflation metrics cited include 2.4% CPI and 2.9% PCE, shaping the debate over a March cut.
Federal Reserve holds the federal funds rate at 3.5%–3.75%, higher than many peers.
Markets assign low odds to a March cut, with expectations leaning toward June or later.
The piece highlights political pressure from Trump as a factor in rate discussions.
Officials weigh tradeoffs between stimulating growth and worsening inflation with rate cuts.
The article notes the stock market’s sideways trend this year amid valuation concerns and AI spending.

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#2 out of 4

New York Fed President John Williams said tariffs have overwhelmingly been borne domestically by U.S. firms and consumers.
Williams said tariffs have already increased U.S. prices of imported goods and may delay the Fed’s 2% inflation goal.
The white paper cited by Williams suggested up to 90% of added tariff costs are passed to domestic buyers.
Williams projected the tariff impact on inflation to be temporary and sees the Fed meeting its 2% target by 2027 if tariffs fade.
Williams said the economy appears to be on solid footing and policy is well positioned to achieve its dual mandate.
Market futures priced in potential rate cuts later this year, per Williams' remarks and market expectations.
Williams emphasized the tariffs have not only affected prices but also hindered inflation progress toward the 2% goal.
The remarks were delivered at a conference in Washington, D.C., and circulated amid White House critiques of the research.
New York Fed researchers questioned the export burden claims and faced pushback from White House officials.
The discussion centers on who ultimately bears tariff costs—the domestic economy or exporters abroad.

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#3 out of 4

Fed's Williams says AI could raise productivity and earnings over time, but the size of the impact is still to be determined.
Williams says AI is not expected to cause structural unemployment and may create more jobs than it destroys.
He warns the AI transition may challenge younger workers entering the job market.
The current economy remains secure for wealthier households but is difficult for others.
From a policy view, AI could act as a positive supply-side force if gains are realized.
Williams cautions policymakers to watch labor-market transitions and inequality as AI evolves.
The remarks come as AI advances fuel debates on productivity versus jobs.
Williams frames AI as a developing trend rather than a guaranteed, uniform economic shift.
The discussion highlights the need for careful policy to manage transitions and inequality.

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#4 out of 4

The White House-backed Kevin Warsh may struggle to win broad support at the Federal Reserve, per Bloomberg.
Warsh could face resistance if he tries to push steep, immediate cuts sought by Trump.
Inflation remains above the 2% goal while the labor market shows some stability, influencing policy debates.
The report notes that the Middle East conflict may add to policymakers’ caution.
Warsh argues that productivity gains from technologies like AI could offset economic concerns.

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