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politics1d ago
2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots
- North Carolina is identified as the most likely seat to flip, with Tillis's retirement opening the race for Roy Cooper or Michael Whatley.
- Tier 2 races in Maine, Michigan and Ohio are labeled toss-ups, with competitive dynamics influencing the Senate control outlook.
- Alaska and Georgia remain key Tier 3 races, with Mary Peltola and Jon Ossoff viewed as potential majors in a close fight.
- New Hampshire and other states are noted as longer-shot opportunities that could influence the ultimate balance if national conditions shift.
- The analysis lays out a five-tier framework, from most likely to flip to longer shots, mapping the overall path to Democratic control.
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