#1
#1 out of 2
world23h ago
Kalshi traders say Strait of Hormuz traffic won't return to normal before January
- Kalshi traders estimate the Strait of Hormuz will not return to normal traffic before January, signaling prolonged disruption.
- Odds of normal traffic before August dropped to 21% over the past two weeks due to renewed hostilities.
- Recent clashes between Iran and Israel have intensified concerns about regional shipping routes.
- Normal traffic is defined by a seven-day moving average above 60 ships through the strait.
- Trump commented on the potential duration of the blockade, suggesting it could last through Labor Day.
- Iran reportedly halted strikes against Israel, but market odds remained largely unchanged.
- Disclosure notes CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship including customer acquisition.
- Traders monitor the strait's traffic by tracking shipping patterns and market odds.
- Analysts say continued tension could affect regional shipping and supply chains into year-end.
- The article ties the traffic outlook to recent cross-border attacks and ceasefire dynamics.
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