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politics23h ago
What Happens to Russia’s Ethnic Minorities After the War?
- Russia’s war in Ukraine has disproportionately drawn on its non-Russian regions, hitting minority communities hardest.
- Casualties and conscription are concentrated in peripheral areas like Buryatia, Dagestan, and Tuva.
- Regional budgets are strained as war costs rise and revenues fall, weakening local services.
- Experts warn that the war economy deepens regional inequalities and could delegitimize Moscow’s narrative.
- Historical patterns of empire complicate potential secession in Russia’s periphery, the authors say.
- Economic power centers like Tatarstan could fuel autonomy moves due to oil wealth and local elites’ leverage.
- Rising domestic costs and resource extraction in minority regions threaten central legitimacy.
- Experts say a prolonged war raises the likelihood of a center losing control over peripheral regions.
- The piece calls for ending the war and ensuring equal citizenship to all ethnic groups as the path to stability.
- Analysts emphasize that independence declarations in the periphery often follow systemic chaos, not sudden nationalism.
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