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23h ago
Earth’s future carbon sink is weaker than climate models assume
- A new study finds Earth's land carbon sink may be weaker than many climate models predict due to nitrogen limits.
- Researchers show higher model fixation values correlate with stronger projected plant productivity under rising CO2.
- The authors call for updating model parameterizations to align with newer nitrogen-fixation estimates.
- Natural nitrogen fixation on terrestrial lands may be significantly lower than inventories previously suggested.
- The study emphasizes that CO2 fertilization is smaller but not absent.
- Earth system models underpin IPCC assessments and national planning.
- Lead author Sian Kou-Giesbrecht and co-authors frame the work as a refinement, not a repudiation, of model-based climate science.
- The findings call for a more realistic nitrogen balance to improve projection accuracy.
- The study reinforces that nature-based climate solutions remain vital but require nutrient-aware planning.
- The research was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences.
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