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business23h ago
JPMorgan says the tech capex surge is masking a troubling slowdown in job growth
- JPMorgan notes a decoupling of capex and hiring in 2025 across developed markets.
- AI hyperscalers drive a surge in corporate capex, yet payroll growth slows.
- JPMorgan reports 2025 payroll growth at 0.6% annually, a warning sign for recessions.
- The 2026 outlook highlights a “decoupling” that challenges traditional growth links.
- Analysts see the unusual pattern as a potential recession indicator, prompting caution.
- Despite capex growth, the labor market shows signs of slower demand in 3Q25.
- JPMorgan emphasizes that tech capex outpaces labor growth in many sectors.
- The report notes labor market weakness may force a policy tilt toward easing.
- JPMorgan expects resilience but warns of recession risk alongside heavy AI investment.
- The outlook argues that capex trends could mislead investors about labor dynamics.
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